Despite not stirring much excitement amongst the general public the seven council by-elections held in Scotland last Thursday were actually of some importance. The results that come in can give us an indication as to the state of play with the parties amongst, most importantly, the 30% or so of the electorate that will almost certainly vote at upcoming elections.
In Scotland all eyes are focussed on May’s election to the Scottish Parliament. What took place should worry Scottish Labour, it appears they have not hit rock bottom yet. Indeed, amazingly, things could get even worse for the Liberal Democrats too. Poor sods.
Local government has always been the traditional fight back route for the Liberals. Improve local areas, build a rapport and the voters will pay you back at a general election. However, the party is in such a level of disarray that it stood in only three of the seven by-elections. A lack of activists and, perhaps, a lack of funds may prove a roadblock on the path back to relevance in Scottish politics. At this rate of decline what’s left of the party will be carted off to a museum for an exhibition on political history.
One party’s misfortune however tends to be another party’s golden opportunity for growth. This is the state of play for the Scottish Conservatives at the moment.
In many areas of Northern Scotland the Tories are now the leading party of both smaller government and the Union. A new liberal party perhaps for former Lib Dem voters.
Gunning for Labour
This banner of being pro-Union is one that the Tories will adorn themselves with more and more as Unionist voters attempt to find a political vehicle to combat the SNP. If you think it is only the Nats that are obsessed with the constitution you are mistaken.
The potential growth of the Conservatives is not limited to traditional Liberal areas but also perhaps in more affluent Labour areas which have been lost to the Conservatives since New Labour.
All but one of the by-elections (Linlithgow, due to local reasons. See end of article if interested) resulted in an increase of the percentage of first preference votes for the Conservatives. The average increase across the six was a solid 5% rise, in two areas Labour were pushed into third place by this resurgence. One of which was in Aberdeen and the North East regional vote will be a key target in May for the Tories.
Be in no doubt Labour are seriously concerned by this now dual decline to their base. One in their ‘traditional’ heartlands to the SNP, which we are all accustomed to, and, now potentially in areas that New Labour managed to capture and hold to the Scottish Conservatives.
One former Scottish Labour advisor told Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative leader,recently that: “I don’t know if you guys will overtake Labour, but I reckon Labour might undertake you”.
A haunting picture of Labour’s future.
Despite the signs of growth Davidson remains sceptical that her party will be the main opposition at Holyrood after May. She is confident however that the party will improve significantly on its 2011 result.
A bigger presence in the parliament will bring with it even greater exposure of her party’s policies, ideas and less of the caricature painted by the Nationalists and Labour for the past thirty years. Then we may see the tipping point as to who forms the main opposition.
The effects of the independence referendum will continue to reverberate for decades. It’s amazing what one day in September can do.
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The Scottish Conservative vote at the Linlithgow by-election was 20.5% of first preference votes, this represents a -12.7% decrease from 2012 election.
However, the sole Conservative candidate in the ward in 2012 is a long standing councillor and two term Provost of West Lothian who garners a large personal vote above and beyond his party name. The decrease therefore cannot be truly measured as a comparison to the Linlithgow 2012 ward election.
