As the Labour leadership election draws to a close it looks increasingly likely that far-left’s candidate Jeremy Corbyn will be the man to replace Ed Miliband.
Corbyn’s pitch to Labour members and supporters is that he will provide the anti-austerity alternative that the British electorate is yearning for. He argues, without any evidence, that the reason the Conservatives returned to power with over 11 million votes in May was because Labour’s manifesto was not radical enough.
Jeremy Corbyn addressing a hustings in Glasgow
This pitch, though, is a completely inaccurate review of why Labour lost another general election. Nonetheless it has proved popular amongst the 600,000 or so Labour supporters that can vote in this leadership election.
Another of Corbyn’s pitches to the party is that he, and he alone, is capable of halting the SNP’s now near decade long rise in popularity.
The train of thought goes that Scots are more left wing than their English counterparts and, thus, a Corbyn manifesto would see former Labour voters return to their natural party of choice.
This, like his revision of the general election, is incorrect.
The hundreds of thousands of Labour voters that have switched allegiance to the SNP cannot be won back. This is not conventional politics, this is constitutional politics. Corbyn’s redder than red manifesto will not matter as he is, even if he does not identify with the term, a unionist. This is the dividing line in Scottish politics now and until independence eventually comes to pass.
Corbyn’s premiership won’t simply fail to win over these new SNP supporters it will solidify their new affiliation.
For many, their relationship with the SNP seems temporary and almost a source of embarrassing. They feel a need to excuse their nationalism, they must find a reason to justify their new SNP members card.
Even SNP politicians scramble in public forums for justification for their party affiliation. Rising star Mhairi Black MP explained her affiliation to the SNP to the Commons was because, “The Labour Party left me”. It’s the same story across the country:
“They’re just noo Labir anymair, son. I yoosty tae be Labir aw ma days but not noo”.
So when Corbyn returns Labour to the party they used to be, of socialism and the red flag, people such as Mhairi Black will snap their SNP members card and join Labour? No.
It is then the new SNP supporters will respond to Corbyn’s manifesto with a rejection, because, despite all their protestations, their politics is anchored around the constitution. At present there is a collective embarrassment surrounding this. After Corbyn comes to power this embarrassment will begin to melt into a proud party affiliation and identity. The sort of voter and party relationship that Labour used to enjoy in industrial Scotland.
The effect that Jeremy Corbyn will have on the thousands of Scottish voters Labour have lost is to ensure the detachment is permanent and not temporary.
If you think Corbyn is the messiah for Labour in Scotland I’m terribly sorry to inform you he is another false prophet.
Labour’s decline in Scotland will continue, and as its core vote now is the over 60s, it will only get worse in the years ahead.
Corbyn will help not hinder the SNP in the long run.
