Demonstrating the party’s new found autonomy Scottish Labour today declared their opposition to the renewal of the Trident nuclear weapons system.
Not only is this in contrast to the current position of the UK Labour Party, conference delegates declared their own independence from Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale who has consistently opposed unilateral disarmament. To complicate matters even more, the party’s sole MP supports scrapping it.
Voices have been raised concerning the growing influence of key Corbyn supporter Neil Findlay MSP. Findlay, who organised Corbyn’s campaign in Scotland, appears to be asserting more and more power within the party. With the establishment of the internal Corbyn aligned campaign group Momentum this influence will be structured and centred on getting Momentum candidates high up on regional lists for May’s election.
As we approach the 6 months to polling day marker Scottish Labour’s direction is yes autnomous but it is also not heading for public office.
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This new opposition to Trident, let’s remember a sizeable proportion of Scots support its renewal, and the green light for any of their MSPs to campaign for independence is wholly directed to the 1.6 million Scots who voted Yes, the vast bulk of whom reside in former Labour heartlands.
Scottish Labour are unable to comprehend just how former these heartlands are. No matter what they support, these voters are gone for good. With six months to go Scottish Labour are talking to voters who will not listen while ignoring those who are.
On a good day Labour in Scotland can poll between 23-26% of the Scottish electorate currently. A great many of these people are over the age of 60. The last generation of Scots which will have a genuine connection and even, perhaps, an identity with the Labour Party. They shall not desert the party until their dying day.
In contrast is the more fluid bulk of the Labour vote, who despite perhaps not being natural Labour supporters, see them as the great defenders of Scottish unionism. But with Scottish Labour’s commitment to defending the union becoming non-binding, therefore these voters’ commitment to the Labour Party is also.
The dilemma for Labour strategists is to devise an answer for why would a middle earning unionist want to vote for a party that seeks to put their taxes up and backpeddle on the union. This weekend’s and previous week’s actions by Scottish Labour leave these voters with a conundrum; vote Scottish Conservative (which for many they would never have dreamed of doing) or hold their nose and vote Labour. If a sizeable proportion of unionists jump ship to the Tories in the regional vote we could well see Ruth Davidson leading the opposition at Holyrood.
Welcome to former Labour supporters who don't want their taxes raised, their country's defences weakened or their MSPs campaigning for indy.
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Ruth Davidson MSP (@RuthDavidsonMSP) November 01, 2015Note the SNP’s relative quiet over this week’s conference debates. They will stand back and allow the Tories and Labour to fight over these voters while they stay in power with a strong and loyal band of pro-independence supporters. The unionist vote splinters further, the Nationalists dream outcome.
As Scottish Labour venture leftwards in the vain hope of winning Nationalist votes they leave behind a great deal of the 700,000 Scots that still vote for them. You may well demonstrate that you aren’t a branch office but you leave yourself even further away from the dream of holding office in Holyrood.
As an electoral strategy goes, this is a bizarre one.
Image may be NSFW.
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