One of the promises of Jeremy Corbyn’s reign was the turning of the Nationalist tide in Scotland.
Leading Scottish Labour left winger Neil Findlay MSP prophesied that the SNP would “fear a Corbyn led Labour party” and would see “a party led by him as a real threat”.
A few months into his leadership and the prophesy lies in tatters. Opinion polls show that instead of the tide being reversed Scottish Labour are again drowning under a nationalist wave. Even more concerning a second front has opened; the Scottish Conservatives.
The latest Holyrood poll has Scottish Labour on a lowly 20% and 19% of the constituency and regional vote respectively. On these figures they would return to the Scottish Parliament in May with 25 MSPs, 12 fewer than their worst ever showing in 2011. The SNP would in contrast win 50% and 46% of votes earning them 72 MSPs.
Scottish Labour are currently heading for their worst ever result. The party’s share of the vote has decreased at Holyrood at every election since the high water mark of 38.1% at the inaugural elections.
The Scottish Conservatives on the other hand are aiming for their best showing at a devolved election. They have twice returned 18 MSPs, in 1999 and 2003. Many in the party believe 2016 can be the year to break through the 18 MSP barrier.
Following a rejuvenation after the referendum they are targeting a specific type of Scottish Labour voter; ardent Unionist, middle class and scared about tax raises from the new devolved powers. If the Essex Man was Thatcher’s target voter then Morningside Man is in Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson’s crosshairs.
On Monday Davidson sounded the starting gun on her party’s Holyrood campaign with 150 days to go. Her speech wasn’t directed at the party of government – who by the time of the election will have been in power for 9 years – but to Scottish Labour.
The often forgotten ‘unionist’ element of the party’s full name was emblazoned on the background in bold lettering. In both presentation and substance this speech was directed entirely to this aforementioned target voter.
Ruth Davidson at her campaign launch on Monday, 7 December 2015
Line after line was a dig at Scottish Labour, even the joint Corbyn-Dugdale proclamation of Scottish Labour’s autonomy came under attack, “I don’t need to go to London and have David Cameron do a photo-op signing a wee piece of paper to tell me that I’m in charge”.
A unionist stick which Davidson battered across Scottish Labour heads, and will do so repeatedly until polling day, is Kezia Dugdale’s decision to allow her MSPs to campaign for independence if they so desired. Davidson judged it “pathetic and weak” yesterday. Whatever it is, expect to hear more of it on doorsteps and TV studios.
While Scottish Labour have pledged to raise the top rate of income tax to 50% when the powers are transferred to Edinburgh the Scottish Conservatives have pledged instead to “people should never be taxed more in Scotland than the rest of the UK”.
The last major party to go to a devolved Scottish Parliament election campaigning for tax raises was none other than the SNP in 1999. Two months from the election the SNP adopted the now infamous ‘Penny for Scotland’ campaign for Scots to pay a 1p in the pound higher rate than the rest of the UK to fund public services. Higher taxes of course were rejected by the voters and by 2002 the policy was cast quietly into the dustbin of Scottish political history.
‘Penny for Scotland’, 1999
Being soft on the Union and raising taxes is not an attractive pitch to middle class unionists who are now the backbone of Labour support in the bizarre world of Scottish politics.
If the party in Scotland is dragged to a Corbyn style policy platform in a vain attempt to win back SNP voters they will only achieve the loss of crutch of voters that give them continual relevance in Scotland.
The Labour Left have badly misjudged the Scottish electorate if they believe that all you have to do win here is to adopt a manifesto of 50 shades of Socialism. The key to the SNP’s success has been middle class subsidies not tax raids.
If higher taxes and a relaxed attitude to the constitution is what Corbynism is in Scotland then it will suffer, and suffer badly.
The tide is yet to turn. Scottish Labour have less than a 150 days to marshal the waves. At this point Corbynism looks set to sink in Scotland.
